Howard Marks
"You can't predict. You can prepare." Focuses on cycles and crowd psychology — cautious when others are greedy, aggressive when they panic — and defines risk as "more things can happen than will happen," putting risk control ahead of chasing return.
Co-founded Oaktree Capital in 1995, focused on distressed debt and credit, now managing over $100B. His investment memos, written since 1990, are "must-read" in Buffett's words; he wrote The Most Important Thing and Mastering the Market Cycle. His writing on cycles, risk and contrarian psychology is among the best primary reading for value investors.
We deliberately show no "weights" here: Oaktree is a credit/distressed shop, and the tiny equity sliver in its 13F (tankers, miners…) doesn't represent how Marks actually invests. The real Marks is in his memos — which is exactly this page's point: reading someone's thinking beats copying their positions.
In their own words
You can't predict. You can prepare.
Risk means more things can happen than will happen.
Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.
Where to follow them
Primary sources. Read the original — don't settle for second-hand summaries.
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